Ethane to Ethylene (G1) - Revision history

Alex Valdes: /* Capital Costs */

2015-03-13T16:55:39Z

Capital Costs

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:55, 13 March 2015
Line 66:		Line 66:
	=Economic Analysis=		=Economic Analysis=
	==Capital Costs==		==Capital Costs==
			Capital cost estimates were obtained by using HYSYS economic analyzer and correlations from Towler and Sinnott for equipment units HYSYS failed to cost. By summing individual equipment components, and adding a 25% correction factor, total capital cost was estimated to be ~1.2 billion USD. Additionally, Towler and Sinnott includes an overall correlation for building a natural gas processing and ethane cracking plant, which yielded an estimate of ~1.6 billion USD. The equipment and installation cost of the 10 fired heaters comprises most of the capital expenditure, at ~85% of estimated capital cost. This makes sense as these units operate at 815℃ for extended periods of time, and even under careful operating conditions should be shut down and cleaned every 3-4 weeks to inhibit coking.

	==Operating Costs==		==Operating Costs==
	Total operating costs were determined to be $2,122 (MM) by summing together the individual components of operating costs. Both variable operating costs and fixed operating costs were considered.		Total operating costs were determined to be $2,122 (MM) by summing together the individual components of operating costs. Both variable operating costs and fixed operating costs were considered.

Alex Valdes: /* Process Technologies and Alternatives */

2015-03-13T16:53:37Z

Process Technologies and Alternatives

@@ Line 51: / Line 51: @@
 =Process Technologies and Alternatives=
 =Process Flowsheet=
 =Economic Analysis=

Alex Valdes: /* Conclusion */

2015-03-13T16:51:59Z

Conclusion

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:51, 13 March 2015
Line 278:		Line 278:


	=Conclusion=		=Conclusion and Future Steps=
	Using HYSYS, our integrated natural gas processing and ethylene production plants were simulated and we now have reasonable initial estimates of essential mass, energy, and equipment requirements. Additionally, using HYSYS economic analyzer and other correlations, we were able size and roughly determine the cost of building and operating the entire process. Although capital costs represent a significant investment relative to yearly revenue (~1.2-1.6 MMM$ versus ~2 MMM$), the most important factor in profitability is the price of obtaining raw shale gas. This price is volatile and sometimes difficult to determine. However, we are optimistic that the price of raw shale will decrease, and ethylene and crude oil prices will increase, to more normal levels. This analysis shows the significant economic potential of this plant over the long run.		Using HYSYS, our integrated natural gas processing and ethylene production plants were simulated and we now have reasonable initial estimates of essential mass, energy, and equipment requirements. Additionally, using HYSYS economic analyzer and other correlations, we were able size and roughly determine the cost of building and operating the entire process. Although capital costs represent a significant investment relative to yearly revenue (~1.2-1.6 MMM$ versus ~2 MMM$), the most important factor in profitability is the price of obtaining raw shale gas. This price is volatile and sometimes difficult to determine. However, we are optimistic that the price of raw shale will decrease, and ethylene and crude oil prices will increase, to more normal levels. This analysis shows the significant economic potential of this plant over the long run.

Line 290:		Line 290:
	*Simulate molecular sieve in HYSYS instead of using a fractionator (black box model)		*Simulate molecular sieve in HYSYS instead of using a fractionator (black box model)
	*Implement process controls to ensure safety and product specifications		*Implement process controls to ensure safety and product specifications
	**Fired heater and cryogenic distillation columns operate at extreme temperatures and pressures - robust controls are necessary to safely operate these units industrially		**Fired heater and cryogenic distillation columns operate at extreme temperatures and pressures - robust controls are necessary to safely operate these units industrially

	=References=		=References=

Alex Valdes at 16:51, 13 March 2015

2015-03-13T16:51:34Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 11:51, 13 March 2015
Line 278:		Line 278:


	=Process Alternatives/Recommendations=
	=Conclusion=		=Conclusion=
			Using HYSYS, our integrated natural gas processing and ethylene production plants were simulated and we now have reasonable initial estimates of essential mass, energy, and equipment requirements. Additionally, using HYSYS economic analyzer and other correlations, we were able size and roughly determine the cost of building and operating the entire process. Although capital costs represent a significant investment relative to yearly revenue (~1.2-1.6 MMM$ versus ~2 MMM$), the most important factor in profitability is the price of obtaining raw shale gas. This price is volatile and sometimes difficult to determine. However, we are optimistic that the price of raw shale will decrease, and ethylene and crude oil prices will increase, to more normal levels. This analysis shows the significant economic potential of this plant over the long run.

			Due to time constraints, there are some features of this topic that were left to be investigated further:
			*More detailed reactor models
			**Use kinetic parameters from literature to simulate cracking reaction
			**Investigate imperfect heat and mass transfer effects in the coils of the fired heater
			**Model hydrogenation reactor as a trickle bed reactor
			*Find industrial data or use more detailed estimate for maintenance cost, especially for upkeep of fired heaters
			*Optimize oil quench to minimize amount of makeup oil
			*Simulate molecular sieve in HYSYS instead of using a fractionator (black box model)
			*Implement process controls to ensure safety and product specifications
			**Fired heater and cryogenic distillation columns operate at extreme temperatures and pressures - robust controls are necessary to safely operate these units industrially

	=References=		=References=

Alex Valdes: /* Executive Summary */

2015-03-13T16:48:11Z

Executive Summary

@@ Line 8: / Line 8: @@
 =Executive Summary=
 =Introduction=
 The goal of this project is to design a process for the manufacture of ethylene from shale gas. Ethylene is a fundamental chemical in the production of various important polymers, including poly(ethylene terephthalate), low density polyethylene, and high density polyethylene. For this reason, ethylene is the most produced organic chemical in the world and demand will soon surpass 200 million metric tons per year.

Tahirkapoor at 06:06, 13 March 2015

2015-03-13T06:06:15Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:06, 13 March 2015
Line 257:		Line 257:
	\|}		\|}

	[[File:CumulativeCashFlow.PNG]]		[[File:CumulativeCashFlow.PNG\|thumb\|center\|upright=3\|Cumulative Cash Flow Diagram]]

	Our initial cost estimations show that our process will be profitable in the long run as shown by a positive net present value and that the discounted payback period will be 6 years. It is very important to note that the cost estimations are extremely sensitive to commodities prices and future energy crises can greatly impact profitability.		Our initial cost estimations show that our process will be profitable in the long run as shown by a positive net present value and that the discounted payback period will be 6 years. It is very important to note that the cost estimations are extremely sensitive to commodities prices and future energy crises can greatly impact profitability.
Line 263:		Line 263:
	===Sensitivity Analysis===		===Sensitivity Analysis===

	[[File:Sensitivityanalysisnaturalgasprice.PNG]]		[[File:Sensitivityanalysisnaturalgasprice.PNG\|thumb\|center\|upright=3\|NPV Sensitivity to Natural gas price fluctuations]]

	If natural gas prices prices fall over 11%, the 12 year NPV will become negative. It is important to consider using financial instruments to hedge against commodity price declines and to ensure a positive net present value in a volatile future.		If natural gas prices prices fall over 11%, the 12 year NPV will become negative. It is important to consider using financial instruments to hedge against commodity price declines and to ensure a positive net present value in a volatile future.

Tahirkapoor at 06:00, 13 March 2015

2015-03-13T06:00:27Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 01:00, 13 March 2015
Line 262:		Line 262:

	===Sensitivity Analysis===		===Sensitivity Analysis===

			[[File:Sensitivityanalysisnaturalgasprice.PNG]]

			If natural gas prices prices fall over 11%, the 12 year NPV will become negative. It is important to consider using financial instruments to hedge against commodity price declines and to ensure a positive net present value in a volatile future.


	=Process Alternatives/Recommendations=		=Process Alternatives/Recommendations=

Tahirkapoor at 05:58, 13 March 2015

2015-03-13T05:58:20Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:58, 13 March 2015
Line 257:		Line 257:
	\|}		\|}

	[[File:~~Example~~.~~jpg~~]]		[[File:CumulativeCashFlow.PNG]]

	Our initial cost estimations show that our process will be profitable in the long run as shown by a positive net present value and that the discounted payback period will be 6 years. It is very important to note that the cost estimations are extremely sensitive to commodities prices and future energy crises can greatly impact profitability.		Our initial cost estimations show that our process will be profitable in the long run as shown by a positive net present value and that the discounted payback period will be 6 years. It is very important to note that the cost estimations are extremely sensitive to commodities prices and future energy crises can greatly impact profitability.


	===Sensitivity Analysis===		===Sensitivity Analysis===

Tahirkapoor: /* Economic Analysis */

2015-03-13T05:52:43Z

Economic Analysis

@@ Line 46: / Line 46: @@
 ==Operating Costs==
 Total operating costs were determined to be $2,122 (MM) by summing together the individual components of operating costs. Both variable operating costs and fixed operating costs were considered.
-==Fixed Operating Costs==
+===Fixed Operating Costs===
 Operating costs were split into fixed and variable operating costs. Fixed operating costs were largely calculated as an annual percentage of capital cost. Maintenance costs, property taxes and insurance, labor cost, management costs, and labor overhead were all included in fixed operating costs. All fixed operating costs were based on design principles in Towler and Sinnott.
@@ Line 85: / Line 85: @@
 |}
-==Variable Operating Costs==
+===Variable Operating Costs===
 The primary components of variable operating costs consisted of heating and cooling utilities, electricity costs from condensers and pumps, waste disposal costs, and raw material costs. After a heat exchanger network was developed and process heat recovery was optimized, total heating and cooling utility loads were extracted from ASPEN Energy Analyzer. Cost parameters for each type of utility were also estimated using data retrieved from ASPEN Energy Analyzer. Electricity costs were estimated using energy stream data from HYSYS and assuming a cost of electricity of $0.0662 per kW*hr - the average cost of industrial electricity in Ohio.
@@ Line 172: / Line 172: @@
 |}
 ==Profitability Analysis==
 ===Sensitivity Analysis===
 =Process Alternatives/Recommendations=
 =Conclusion=

Tahirkapoor at 05:40, 13 March 2015

2015-03-13T05:40:05Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 00:40, 13 March 2015
Line 45:		Line 45:
	==Capital Costs==		==Capital Costs==
	==Operating Costs==		==Operating Costs==
		⚫	Total operating costs were determined to be $2,122 (MM) by summing together the individual components of operating costs. Both variable operating costs and fixed operating costs were considered.
	==Fixed Operating Costs==		==Fixed Operating Costs==

Line 170:		Line 171:
	\|		\|
	\|}		\|}

⚫	Total operating costs were determined to be $2,122 (MM) by summing the individual components of operating costs.

	==Profitability Analysis==		==Profitability Analysis==