Estimation of production cost and revenue
Variable Cost of Production
Estimating Variable Production Costs
Raw Materials Cost
These are the costs of chemical feed stocks required by the process. Feed stocks flow rates are obtained from PFD .
These are the costs of the various utilities streams required by the process. The flowrates for the utilities streams are located on the PFD . This includes:
- Fuel gas, oil, or coal
- Electric power
- Cooling water
- Process water
- Boiler feed water
- Inert gas
Waste Disposal Costs
These are defined as the cost of waste treatment to protect the environment .
Fixed Cost of Production
Estimating Fixed Production Costs
These are the costs attributed to the personnel required to operate the process plant .
Part of these costs are associated with labor and materials necessary to maintain plant production .
Research and Development
These are the costs of research done in developing the process and/or products. This includes salaries for researchers as well as funds for research related equipment and supplies .
Land, Rent, Taxes
Licensing and Royalties
The revenues of a process are the income earned form sales of the main products and the by-products. Revenue can be impacted by market fluctuations and production rates.
Besides selling the main product from a process, by-products from separations and reactions can also be valuable in the market. Often it is more difficult to decide which by-products to recover and purify than it is to make decisions on the main product.
By-products made in stoichiometric ratios from reactions must be either sold off or managed through waste disposal. Other by-products are sometimes produced through feed impurities or by nonselective reactions. There are several potential valuable by-products from a process:
- Materials produced in stoichiometric quantities by the reactions that create the main product. If they are not recovered then the waste disposal expenses will be large.
- Components that are produced in high yield by side reactions.
- Components formed in high yield from feed impurities. Many sulfurs are produced as a by-product of fuels manufacture.
- Components that are produced in low yield but have high value. An example includes acetophenone which is recovered as a by-product of phenol manufacture.
- Degraded consumables (e.g. solvents, etc.) that have reuse value.
A rule of thumb that can be used for preliminary screening of by-products for large plants is that for by-product recovery to be economically feasible the net benefit must be greater than $200,000 a year. A net benefit can be calculated by adding the possible resale value of the by-product and the avoided waste disposal cost .
The gross margin of a process is defined as the sum of product and by-product revenues minus the raw material cost.
Gross margin = Revenues - Raw materials costs
Because raw materials are most often the most expensive variable cost of a process, the gross margin is a good gauge as to what the total profitability of a process will be. Raw materials and product pricing are often subject to high degrees of variability which can be difficult to forecast. The size of margins are highly versatile depending on the industry. For many petrochemical industries the margin may be only 10%; however, for industries such as food additives and pharmaceuticals the margins are generally much higher .
There are several standards for calculating company profits. The cash cost of production (CCOP) is the sum of the fixed and variable production costs.
where is the variable cost of production and is the fixed cost of production.
Gross profit, which should not be confused with gross margin, is then calculated by the following equation,
Finally profit can be calculated by subtracting the income taxes that the plant would be subject to depending on the tax code of the county the plant is located in.
Pricing Products and Raw Materials
Price data Sources
Internal Company Forecasts
Online Brokers and Suppliers
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- Towler, G.P. and Sinnot, R. (2012). Chemical Engineering Design: Principles, Practice and Economics of Plant and Process Design.Elsevier.
- Biegler, L.T., Grossmann, L.E., and Westerberg, A.W. (1997). Systematic Methods of Chemical Process Design. Upper Saddle River: Prentice-Hall.
- Peters, M.S. and Timmerhaus, K.D. (2003). Plant Design and Economics for Chemical Engineers, 5th Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill.
- Seider, W.D., Seader, J.D., and Lewin, D.R. (2004). Process Design Principles: Synthesis, Analysis, and Evaluation. New York: Wiley.
- Turton, R.T., Bailie, R.C., Whiting, W.B., and Shaewitz, J.A. (2003). Analysis, Synthesis, and Design of Chemical Processes Upper Saddle River: Prentice-Hall.